NSW enters ‘deep transition’ phase to achieve 90% renewables by 2035

Transgrid’s Transmission Annual Planning Report (TAPR) 2025 marks the completion of the 'ramp up' phase of NSW’s energy transition, a decade during which wind and solar generation increased five-fold, while the share of coal generation fell to around 60%.

Transgrid CEO Brett Redman said: “We are now entering the new, highly dynamic phase of ‘deep transition’ in which the grid will undergo dramatic change, with the rapid closure of coal generators and accelerated buildout of renewable generation, storage and transmission.

“During this time, we forecast NSW transitioning from the current threshold of about 40% renewable energy, to around 90% in 2035.

“It will take the aligned efforts of our entire sector to accelerate progress and ensure renewable generation and security services are ready on time as coal retires so that energy consumers have ready access to more affordable energy.”

The report details the new transmission projects that will make up the future grid and provides updates on Transgrid’s network augmentation projects and collaborative work on Renewable Energy Zone (REZ) connections with EnergyCo and local electricity networks. Critical transmission projects include EnergyConnect, HumeLink, VNI West, Hunter Transmission Project, Sydney Ring South and QNI Connect.

The report also highlights record growth in generator connections over the past 12 months, with Transgrid now supporting more than 10GW of new renewable energy and storage projects.

“Transgrid is playing a crucial role in reaching Australia’s renewable energy and net zero targets and delivering cleaner and more affordable energy to millions of consumers,” Mr Redman said.

“We are processing more applications than ever before from new generators and energy storage facilities wanting to benefit from connecting directly to our transmission network.

“Since 2024, more than 6.6GW has progressed through key project connection milestones.

“Connection interest from Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) has surged, with more than 3GW achieving or progressing towards commissioning.”

The report predicts peak demand growing higher and minimum demand falling faster than previously projected, with the growth of data centres spiking industrial loads, while rooftop solar and electrification reshape how and when energy is used.

“By the early 2030s, the impressive rise of rooftop solar may see minimum demand from the grid hitting zero, a tipping point for how the grid is planned and operated,” Mr Redman said.

“Creating enough clean energy in time to meet growing data centre demand will be challenging, but doing so presents a huge opportunity to create new top line revenue for NSW – exporting megawatts as megabytes.

“This all means adapting to a widening ‘demand envelope’ characterised by higher peaks and lower minimums. By planning for what’s next, we’re building a resilient, efficient network that keeps pace with the demands of the transition.”

For the first time, the report outlines Transgrid’s multi-decade plans for the potential augmentation of supply corridors to bring more renewable energy to Greater Sydney, powering the city’s growing, electrified economy, in the ‘new transitioned era’ beyond 2035.

Several major infrastructure projects are proposed to link REZs in NSW and the National Electricity Market with Greater Sydney to ensure a reliable, secure power supply while supporting the region’s transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy.

Transgrid’s 2025 TAPR is available here.

What’s new in TAPR 2025

• 44% drop in forecast minimum demand in NSW in the next two years and zero minimum demand forecast by the early 2030s
• 8 GW more rooftop solar generation capacity forecast to be installed in NSW and ACT by 2035
• 5,200 GWh of electric vehicle charging in NSW and ACT forecast in 2035
• At least 800 MW of additional data centre load forecast by 2035
• 4115 MW additional renewable generation and energy storage have committed to joining the network in the past 12 months

Media enquiries: James Atkinson 0475 965 030 / james.atkinson@transgrid.com.au