Transmission Annual Planning Report 2023

TAPR 2023 charts shortfalls in generation, system strength, frequency control and inertia caused by the retirement of multiple coal-fired power stations.
This report shows how Transgrid is solving these issues as clean energy transition velocity
is ramping up. We have robust plans to ensure energy reliability, system security and operability so that we are ready to operate the NSW power system at 100% instantaneous renewables.

This chapter briefly explains the challenges of transitioning to a grid powered largely by solar and wind. It summarises Transgrid’s plan, underpinned by the modelling in this TAPR, to both build this new type of grid and keep the lights on during transition. Section 4 shares our thinking on the next horizon. It discusses some of Australia’s options for expanding our future power system beyond 2033 to support economy-wide electrification and new green industries.

Details Transgrid’s current and planned projects to address emerging constraints and create access for the rising volumes of energy from multiple sources required in our transitioning grid. Transgrid’s current and proposed major network developments, in alignment with the NSW Roadmap and AEMO’s 2022 ISP, will address these emerging constraints, support the connection of renewable generation and REZ and transition towards cheaper, cleaner and more reliable supply to consumers. Delivering large-scale transmission infrastructure to connect and share new renewable generation and storage with customers, as ageing coal generators retire.

Transgrid is using innovative non-network and emerging technology solutions to address the new constraints the NSW transmission network is facing – looking beyond ‘poles and wires’. This Chapter outlines where our planning studies show it may be feasible and cost effective for non-network or other innovative solutions to be implemented instead of, or alongside traditional infrastructure augmentation. It also provides details of successful or planned non‑network solutions, where we are already using emerging technologies and innovative solutions to defer or avoid significant capital costs.

Forecasts demonstrate the destabilising effect of a decarbonising grid and the volatility of the environment in which Transgrid is building the new energy network. Transgrid’s TAPR continues to forecast modest annual growth in demand for electricity across NSW over the next decade. The consumer energy transition continues to gain pace, with anticipated future growth in the adoption of new energy technologies including rooftop solar PV, battery storage and electric vehicles. These changes are accompanied by cost-of-living challenges caused by the inflationary macro environment (in the short term), followed by forecast downward pressure on consumer energy prices as major transmission projects unlock more and more low-cost renewable generation.

TAPR 2023 tracks future system security gaps caused by the forecast retirement of coal generation, reinforcing the need for investment in new system security infrastructure and new tools and capabilities. Delivering a secure energy service also depends on having the right skills and tools to plan, manage and operate a complex energy system operating at up to 100% instantaneous renewable energy. We will need uplifts in real-time monitoring, power system modelling and control room technologies and training to ensure operational staff have the capability to maintain secure operation of the NEM power system throughout Australia’s energy transition.